Dear Fellow Liberals:

In 2000, after the polls closed on election night, every single television network was calling the race too close to call. Then, something strange happened. The election statistician at Fox News, who just happened to be George W. Bush’s cousin, called the race in favor of Bush. Within minutes, all the other networks similarly started calling it a Bush win. Aside from the AP’s article the following morning – which rightly called the count still too close to call – Bush was the presumptive President-elect.

And that too-early call by the networks colored the dispute over the next few weeks. Had things been up in the air still, it might have been a fight between two candidates. Instead, with Bush called the winner before the votes were even counted, it became a fight between the next President and a bitter loser unwilling to gracefully throw in the towel.

I bring this up now as a reminder of how powerful expectations can be. By and large, we get what we think we will – especially in the world of politics. Which is why I find the current liberal defeatism particularly distressing. My friends – intelligent, well-reasoned people – are heading off to protests, all the while saying Bush is almost certain to win.

But the thing is, he isn’t. With two months to go ’till election day, the two candidates are consistently polling within the margin of error. And, from the perspective of the incumbent, historically that’s not a very good place to be – especially when matched up against a candidate (like Kerry) who’s seen his numbers swing up during the final two months of hard, pull-no-punches campaigning in every single one of his prior races.

In other words, this is Kerry’s race to lose, not the other way around. But we jeopardize that edge every single time we sigh, throw up our hands, and brace ourselves for four more years of Bush. If you’re going to play to win, you’ve got to say so.

That’s particularly important in a race where a Kerry victory hinges on undecided voter turn-out. According to the contours of the latest WSJ/NBC poll, 70 percent of them think the country is headed in the wrong direction, and a very large majority have an unfavorable view of George Bush. By all indications, undecideds are going to break hard for Kerry, but only if they think it’s worth their time to head out and vote – only if they think the race is still in their hands, rather than more or less already a Bush win.
Which is all to say, if you want Kerry to win, start talking like he will. Heaven knows the other side takes that approach. The only difference is, in our case, we’re probably right.

Sincerely,

josh