At this point, it’s totally unclear when NYC will (or should) start to ease off on lockdown restrictions. For my own work, I’m keeping an eye out for any info on gym re-openings in particular, and on what new social distancing requirements in that setting might look like.

That said, I’m also acutely aware of how limited any reopening is likely to be in the near (or even middle) future. For example, given older, immunocompromised, and simply more cautious members, I expect only about 70% of a large gym’s members will return.

And, similarly, between continued social distancing practices, at least some days spent working from home, and general shifts to life rhythm, I suspect most of those who do return would still be coming back only about 70% as frequently as they did before.

Which leads to some simple math: 70% * 70% = 49%.  In other words, even if most people start coming back, mostly as much as they did before, actual training is likely to drop by half.  And, I would guess, restaurants and bars and stores and any other kind of commercial, bricks-and-mortar establishment will likely face the same thing.

So, while it would be great, when safe to do so, to reboot much of our in-person economy, I’m not particularly bullish about most businesses’ prospects. Coming back, but with a 50%+ haircut, will almost certainly bankrupt the vast majority of them, only slightly slower than if they never have the chance to reopen at all.